What Will be Considered Valuable in "Vintage" in 30 years?

by Henry Sergent

Will it really be the same? "Vintage" is generally defined as being at least 20 years old or older. When I first got into collecting old clothes, there seemed to be a finer separation between eras regarding the clothing I saw being defined as vintage. Tees from the 90s and

earlier read Made in the USA, coming with the single stitch and paper tags, while tees from the 2000s were made of thinner fabrics and had printed tags reading Made in China, etc. There was a tangible split adding a particular ethos to clothing being sold as vintage, whether that was regarding the branding or fabric quality. However, as the years have gone by, the split remains, but it has drifted into a bit of a muddy grey area.

I'm not an OG or True Vintage warrior lamenting about the past; I've only been in this game/industry/habit/hobby/addiction for six or seven years. However, I've still noticed how vintage has shifted as more and more clothing made in the 2000s has moved into the 20-years-or-older category.

On one hand, the vintage community still has a lot of love for this youngest class of clothing. Ed Hardy Jeans maintain their value and desirability, more modern Carhartt jackets still fetch high price tags, merch from Y2K movies and music bring mass appeal, and sports have changed enough to the point where tees and jackets from back then have a certain retro appeal. Thrifters would be just as happy to pull some of these as they would similar items from earlier generations; there is sufficient nostalgia to provide a similar value and dopamine hit.

However, there is an underlying issue. Although certain clothing from the 2000s maintains strong cultural reverence and, in turn, profitability, the depth of value is nothing like it has been for vintage in the past.

One of the most beautiful aspects of vintage clothing is that you can find a completely random piece of clothing from 20th century, with no brand or cultural affiliation, and it could still represent a core piece of your wardrobe. I've worn a 1980s flannel fleece from some random department store for years. I have some tees with graphics advertising some museum or place I've never been to that I wouldn't sell simply because the shirt is either butter soft or the piece's construction impresses me. I've seen some of the best fits out there made up of an eclectic blend of thrifted but high-quality old garments. None of those examples needed a brand name, or celebrity cosign to bolster their value; they stand independently because of their construction and artistry. Vintage Mids can be beautiful, and Vintage Mids can be loved.

I fear this is not the case in the modern era.

While culturally relevant labels from y2k and after maintain their demand, the pool underneath the coveted brands has expanded and suffered a serious blow to its viability. When I go to any thrift store in our Red, White, and Blue hypercapitalist fever dream, I, without fail, have to sift through hundreds of almost unwearable, poor-quality garments. Whether it is a tee shirt advertising a corporate staff retreat, a horrid polyester jersey for someone's rec soccer team, or some disintegrating SHEIN sweatshirt, they all fall into this unsellable soup of unappealing secondhand clothing. If I pull out a tee from H&M to give to my kid in the future, would they really react to it as I reacted when my Dad gave me his collection of '90s Bulls tees?

Fast fashion has ushered in unprecedented excess and efficiency to fashion that has disintegrated their products' ability to last into the future. While producing thin, polyester tee shirts by the ton has certainly benefited the industry's vulturous private equity owners, it potentially threatens the vintage industry's ability to persist long into the future. Given the excessive quantity and abhorrent quality of today's fashion landscape, there is no way that vintage dealers in the future will be able to move today's median product the way they have for things made earlier than 2000.

So, in that context, what will vintage dealers be selling in 2045? What should thrifters and collectors look to buy as investment pieces for their future?

Naturally, the "true vintage" clothing made earlier than 2000 will continue to hold value, and much will increase in value as the supply becomes more scarce and coveted in the graveyard of fast fashion detritus. If you think your 90s Band Tees or Big E Levis are valuable now, wait until they become real relics. But that is the obvious point to make. Everyone's hypothetical interest is to hold onto their favorite vintage garms.

But the more important question is what will last that is being made new today? While I wish the majority of new clothing production would stop because of the absolute carnage that the global fashion industry wages upon the environment, new clothing will continue to be made, and some of that clothing will become the "grails" of our children.

The coveted tier of "future vintage" will likely be a mix of branded apparel and designer clothing, simply because either their quality or reputation will carry them out of the toxic stew that is fashion today. Brands like Supreme, Hellstar, Carhartt, ALD, Gallery Department, Arcteryx, etc, all have a mass appeal right now and are some of the most publicized in the social media landscape. This category of brands, reliant on heavy branding and product placement, will maintain staying power through product placement and internet circulation, which will continue to sell products and bolster the value of past items. I imagine my kids will still be looking at A$AP Rocky fits for inspiration (if they are not, I will make them).

Furthermore, all the hype designer clothing today will continue to fetch high prices. Although brands like Chrome Hearts, Rick Owens, Acne Studios, or Enfants Riches Deprimes may not necessarily use fabric or construction that warrants their price points (ERD charges $1200 for fake vintage cotton tee shirts), the status symbolism these labels exude is not going away. You'll definitely be able to get things for less than retail, but that doesn't mean you're not dropping a bag. I hope Balenciaga campaign sweatshirts go for under $500 sometime in my life. That goes for those Kapital bandana jackets, too. Also, and obviously, the items from designer brands that legitimately have superior construction, pieces from Loro Piana, Christian Carol Poel, Junya Watanabe, and runway exclusives from any brand will not be cheap.

All these labels and houses are popular now, and their used items will be valuable in the future, so "vintage" will not necessarily die. That said, millions of tons of textiles will be left by the wayside in the secondhand markets of the future; this represents a significant change from how clothing has aged into value in the past. A corduroy jacket from H&M will likely fall apart before someone can market it as "vintage" in the future. Band tees no longer feel special when they come with printed tags and flimsy poly-blend fibers. Cheaply made "genuine leather" jackets from places like Artizia or Zara may deceive you into thinking they're quality but will start to peel the second you try to wash them (or if you wear them more than three times). In this era of abhorrent, ungodly, and completely unethical overproduction, clothing is simply a vehicle for profit, and brands love making pretty ad campaigns for clothing that costs a few cents and a sprinkle of child labor to make. If you're ever tempted to think your fast fashion purchase is "quality," just remember that SHEIN releases 10,000 new items daily (NOT UNITS, ITEMS WITH MULTIPLE UNITS). It is a shame that high-quality essentials are not the priority for the ever-churning fashion machine, but they will milk the consumer until new ones are born, and then they will milk them.

If your new clothing does not have an attractive label, it will not survive; it will not be valuable in the next stage of "vintage." My best advice right now is to buy as much vintage as possible and hold onto it. The love for that Made in USA tag will never die.